Stand by for history.
Tomorrow is ‘Jobs Tuesday’ a rare event where the big Non-Farm Payrolls report comes out on a Tuesday, rather than the typical first Friday of the month. That’s because the government shutdown threw everything for a loop, and the regular schedule of economic data got put into disarray.
Some might be inclined to discount any number that we get tomorrow because of the nonsense that transpired in October, but it’d be a mistake to be too hasty.
Mike O’Rourke of JonesTrading explains that we should get some important insight on the economy from the report:
Tomorrow the Bureau of Labour Statistics will release the belated Nonfarm Payrolls report for September. Unless this report results in a major outlier print in one direction or the other, the events of the last 3 weeks leave a great deal of room for interpretation. The landscape is as follows. The August Employment Situation report was disappointing. Although payrolls added only fell slightly short of the consensus estimate, July and June experienced a downward revision of 74,000 jobs. In additional, the improvement in the Unemployment Rate was entirely due to labour force contraction even though the Household survey reported a loss of 115,000 jobs.
The questions surrounding tomorrow’s report is whether or not the next round of revisions will recover the lost ground in the August report and whether the July-August deceleration is a new trend.
So obviously watch the number, but really watch the revisions and see if a new, slower economic regimen had already taken hold prior to the shutdown.
Anyway, official expectations are for 180k tomorrow. Check out a full jobs report preview here.