Here’s a brilliant chart from FT Alphaville. It’s the Portuguese sovereign CDS curve, and as you see it’s inverted.
In other words, investors think there’s a greater chance of a Portuguese default in the short term than in the long term.
The time is right now for the ECB to solve the problem. If they can do it, they’re in good shape. If they can’t come up with a fix, then a bust could be imminent.
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