History Tells Us ~685 Million Smartphones Will Be Sold This Year — A 45 per cent Increase Over Last Year

Global Smartphone And PC Shipments

Gartner just released its smartphone sales figures for the second quarter.Globally, 153.7 smartphones were sold last quarter, bringing the total to 298.1 million through the first six months of the year.

That’s up 44 per cent versus last year, a deceleration from prior years’ sales.

While using historical trends to forecast data is imperfect, the smartphone market has exhibited a semi-regular seasonal sales trend. 

From 2008 to 2011, first quarter sales have averaged about 21 per cent of total year-end sales (23, 21, 18, and 21 per cent in the four years, respectively). Second quarter sales have represented, on average, 23 per cent of year-end sales (23, 24, 21, and 23 per cent, respectively).

Taking that combined 44 per cent figure and applying it to the 298.1 million smartphone sold thus far, historical sales patterns predict that 684 million smartphones will be sold this year.

That would represent 45 per cent growth over last year, a deceleration of the growth in recent years. It would also be in line with our original estimate of 683 million smartphones sold.

Of course, other factors will influence smartphone sales in the second half of the year, including the expected release of the new iPhone and a fragile global economy. 

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