The S&P 500 rallied 1.78% in trade Tuesday and in the process wiped away the big, Brexit-related fall of the previous day.
But the technical team of Michael Riesner and Marc Muller at UBS says Monday’s close below 2025 changes their outlook for the market and means the current bounce will be short-lived.
“From a cycle perspective a break of 2025/2020 triggers a new short signal in our cyclical model, which in the bigger picture implies that an imminent breakout in the US market is off the table, which leaves our base case scenario unchanged of trading in a volatile and complex wave 4 of a larger degree”.
In terms of timing they say that once the current bounce runs it course that “with fresh short signals in our indicator work, a new breakout on the vola side, a series of breakdowns on the macro side, and in key sectors (banks, transport, biotech, SOX) a bounce should be short in price and time followed by further weakness into deeper July”.
Riesner and Muller say the S&P 500 is in for a negative surprise which will “open the door towards 2000, 1960 and 1928 which is the 62% retracement of the February/June rebound cycle”.
All is not lost however. After the fall to their projected levels Riesner and Muller then expect a bounce into September.
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