The previous post is the Summary for Week ending Oct 2nd
The key economic release this week is the September employment report on Friday. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak Monday evening, and his speech will be closely watched for additional hints on QE2.
—– Likely, but not scheduled —–
Expected on Monday: September Personal Bankruptcy Filings
During the week: Reis is expected to release their Q3 Office, Mall and Apartment vacancy rate reports.
—– Monday, Oct 4th —–
10:00 AM ET: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for August. The consensus is for a 0.3% decline in August.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for August. The consensus is for a slight increase (about 2.8%) in contracts signed. Economist Tom Lawler noted “My “best guess” right now on the pending home sales index is that it will show a seasonally adjusted increase from July to August of around 4%.” It usually takes 45 to 60 days to close, so this will provide an early indication of closings in October.
11:30 AM: NY Fed’s Brian Sack to speak at CFA conference in California: “Managing the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet”.
7:30 PM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at the Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council meeting in Rhode Island. Although this is a “fiscal sustainability” meeting, Bernanke has promised not to speak on fiscal issues.
“With Rhode Island remaining among the top five states for unemployment, and with increasing signs that the national recovery is slowing, Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve will visit Rhode Island to deliver the keynote address at the RIPEC Annual Dinner.”
—– Tuesday, Oct 5th —–
10:00 AM: ISM Non-manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for an increase in the service index to 52.0 from 51.5 in August.
—– Wednesday, Oct 6th —–
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index declined sharply following the expiration of the tax credit, and the index has only recovered slightly over the last couple months – suggesting reported home sales through at least October will be very weak.
8:15 AM: ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for +23,000 payroll jobs in September – still weak, but an improvement over the 10,000 jobs reported lost in August.
—– Thursday, Oct 7th —–
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Consensus is for a decline to 450,000 from 453,000 last week.
10:00 AM: Job Openings and labour Turnover Survey for August from the BLS. This report has been showing very little turnover in the labour market and few job openings.
Fed Speeches: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher will speak at the Economic Club of Minnesota, and Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig will speak at an economic forum in Omaha (Fisher and Hoenig oppose additional easing).
3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for August. The consensus is for another $4 billion decline in consumer credit.
—– Friday, Oct 8th —–
8:30 AM: Employment Report for September. The consensus is for no change in payroll jobs, with 78,000 fewer Census jobs, or about +78,000 ex-Census increase in payrolls. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to increase slightly to 9.7% from 9.6% in August. For a short preview, see: September Employment Report Preview. This is the last employment report before the two day Fed meeting on Nov 2nd and 3rd.
10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for August. The consensus is 0.5% increase in inventories.
After 4:00 PM: The FDIC might have another busy Friday afternoon …