The previous post is the Summary for Week ending Oct 23rd
The key economic report for the coming week is the Q3 advance GDP report to be released on Friday. There are also three important housing reports to be released early in the week: Existing home sales on Monday, Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday, and New Home sales on Wednesday.
—– Unscheduled, but likely —–
CoreLogic House Price Index for August. This release will probably show further declines in house prices. The index is a weighted 3 month average for June, July and August.
Making Home Affordable Program (HAMP) for September and the “Housing Scorecard”
—– Monday, Oct 25th —–
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September). This is a composite index of other data.
8:30 AM: Fed Chairman Bernanke, Welcoming Remarks at Mortgage Foreclosures and the Future of Housing Finance in Arlington, VA. I don’t expect anything newsworthy from Bernanke, but there are a number of interesting topics at this two day conference on housing issues (see agenda at link).
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for September from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for an increase to 4.30 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in September from 4.13 million in August. Housing economist Tom Lawler is projecting 4.5 million SAAR. In addition to sales, the level of inventory and months-of-supply will be very important (since months-of-supply impacts prices). Months-of-supply should still be in double digits in September. Note: there will probably be no impact on September sales from the “robo-signer” foreclosure moratorium.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for October. The Texas survey showed a slight expansion last month (at 4.0), and is expected to show a slight expansion again in October.
Various Fed Speeches: St. Louis Fed President Bullard (1:30 PM), NY Fed President Dudley (4:30 PM), and Kansas City Fed President Hoenig (8 PM) are all scheduled to speak.
—– Tuesday, Oct 26th —–
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for August. Although this is the August report, it is really a 3 month average of June, July and August. The consensus is for a slight decline in prices month-over-month in August.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October. The consensus is for the index to be flat after showing contraction (-2) last month.
10:00 AM: 10:00 FHFA House Price Index for August. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).
10:00 AM: Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for October. The consensus is for an increase to 50 from 48.5 last month. This is down sharply from earlier this year.
—– Wednesday, Oct 27th —–
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index declined sharply following the expiration of the tax credit, and the index has only recovered slightly over the last few months even with record low mortgage rates.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.6% increase in durable goods orders after declining 1.3% in August.
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a slight increase in sales to 300K (SAAR) in September from 288K in August. New home sales collapsed in and have averaged only 293K (SAAR) over the last four months. Prior to the last four months, the previous record low was 338K in Sept 1981.
—– Thursday, Oct 28th —–
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Consensus is for about an increase to 455,000 from 452,000 last week (still elevated).
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for October. The index was at 14 in September.
—– Friday, Oct 29th —–
8:30 AM: Q3 GDP (second release). This is the advance release from the BEA, and the consensus is for real GDP to increase 2.0% annualized. My initial estimate was for a 1.5% annualized real increase in Q3 GDP, and I’ll post another preview during the week. This is probably the last economic report standing between the Fed and QE2 (2nd round of quantitative easing). It would take a huge upside surprise in the GDP report to delay QE2 from arriving on November 3rd at 2:15 PM.
8:30 AM: The Q3 Employment Cost Index from the BLS. This is a measure of total compensation costs and the consensus is for 0.5% increase.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a decline to 57.6 from 60.4 in September.
9:55 AM: Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (final for October).
After 4:00 PM: The FDIC will probably have another busy Friday afternoon …
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