The key release this week will be September retail sales on Friday. Also Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will try to explain the objectives of QE2 on Friday “Monetary Policy Objectives and Tools in a Low-Inflation Environment”.
—– Likely, but not scheduled —–
Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ This is the diesel fuel index for September (a measure of transportation).
CoreLogic House Price Index for August. This release could show further declines in house prices. The index is a weighted 3 month average for June, July and August.
Association of American Railroads rail traffic indicators for September. Trucking, rail traffic and the Ceridian diesel fuel index are all measures of transportation (a coincident indicator).
—– Monday, Oct 11th —–
2:45 PM ET: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the National Association for Business Economics meeting in Denver: “Macroprudential Supervision and Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis World”
—– Tuesday, Oct 12th—–
7:30 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September. This index has been showing small businesses remain pessimistic and the survey shows that the major concern of small businesses is lack of customers.
11:45 AM: Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig speaks at the National Association for Business Economics meeting in Denver. “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy: Challenges Ahead”
2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of September 21, 2010. Investors will focus on any discussion of QE2.
—– Wednesday, Oct 13th —–
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index declined sharply following the expiration of the tax credit. The index has increased a little recently – possibly due to borrowers trying to beat the slightly tighter FHA requirements.
7:45 PM: Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker will speak in Chapel Hill, NC.
—– Thursday, Oct 14th —–
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Consensus is for a slight decrease to 443K from 445K last week.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to increase to $44 billion (from $42.8 billion in July).
8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for September. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in producer prices.
—– Friday, Oct 15th —–
8:15 AM: Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference “Monetary Policy Objectives and Tools in a Low-Inflation Environment”
8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for September. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in prices. This is being closely watched for further disinflation, and also because Q3 is the quarter the annual annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is calculated for Social Security (this will make it official that there will be no change in 2011).
8:30 AM: Retail Sales for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase from August.
8:30 AM: Empire Manufacturing Survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 8.0, up from 4.1 in September. These regional surveys have been showing a slowdown in manufacturing and are being closely watched right now.
9:15 AM: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart participates in a question-and-answer session on the economy in Atlanta.
9:55 AM: Reuters/University of Mich Consumer Sentiment preliminary for October. The consensus is for a slight increase to 69.0 from 68.2 in September.
10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales for August. Consensus is for a 0.4% increase in inventories in August.
After 4:00 PM: The FDIC has really slowed down closing banks – even though the Unofficial problem bank list continues to increase. The pace of closures will probably pickup soon …
—– Saturday, Oct 16th —–
8:15 AM: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks at Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference