There is some interesting volatility within the sub-indices of the ANZ – Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index but for the most part the intra-index volatility is balancing out with the index holding in a range near the long run average.
In the week ending October 5 the index fell 1.0% to 112.6.
The fall last week was on the back of a big fall in “current conditions compared to a year ago (-3.7%) and expectations over the next year (-2.4%).” But the ANZ said the primary offset to this fall was a big surge in “households’ perceptions of economic conditions over the next five years (+3.8%), following the previous week’s decline (-6.3%).”
ANZ Chief economist Warren Hogan was pretty upbeat though saying that “Stable consumer confidence, combined with a lower AUD and a gradual strengthening in labour demand (as indicated by yesterday’s September ANZ job ads), should provide some support to retail sales in coming months. However, continuing consumer caution and soft income growth will remain headwinds to the household sector.”
No boom but no bust then either with the ANZ saying the wash up of the data is that rates are on hold for some time.