The key releases this week will be retail sales (on Tues for August), Industrial Production (Weds for August) and the Empire state and Philly Fed surveys (Weds and Thurs for Sept).
—– Likely, but not scheduled —–
Possibly on Monday (update: I’ve been told Tuesday): Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ This is the diesel fuel index for August (a measure of transportation).
CoreLogic House Price Index for July. This release could show the first signs of price declines in July, although the index is a weighted 3 month average for May, June and July.
—– Monday Sept 13th —–
No releases scheduled.
—– Tuesday Sept 14th —–
8:30 AM: Retail Sales for August. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase from July.
Early: NFIB Small Business Survey for August. This survey has been showing declining optimism in the small business sector.
10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales for July. Consensus is for a 0.6% increase in inventories in July.
—– Wednesday Sept 15th —–
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index declined sharply following the expiration of the tax credit, and the index has only recovered slightly over the last few weeks – suggesting reported home sales in August and September will be weak.
8:30 AM: Empire Manufacturing Survey for Sept. The consensus is for a reading of 5.0, down from 7.1 in August. These regional surveys have been showing a slowdown in manufacturing and are being closely watched right now.
9:15 AM: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for August. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in August.
—– Thursday Sept 16th —–
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Consensus is for a slight increase to 455K from 451K last week. Claims for nine states were estimated last week because of the holiday.
8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for August. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in prices.
10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for September. This survey declined sharply over the last few months, and showed contraction last month for the first time since July 2009. The consensus is for an increase to 3.8 (slow expansion) from minus 7.7 in August.
—– Friday Sept 17th —–
8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for August. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in prices. This is being closely watched for further disinflation, and also because Q3 is the quarter the annual annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is calculated for Social Security (probably no change in 2011).
9:55 AM: Reuters/University of Mich Consumer Sentiment preliminary for September. The consensus is for a slight increase to 70.0 from 68.9 in August.
12:00 PM: Q2 Flow of Funds Report from the Federal Reserve.
After 4:00 PM: The FDIC has only closed one bank over the last 3 weeks. The pace will probably pickup soon …