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Vacation’s over.Time for a quick, four-day sprint to next weekend.
With Europe (possibly) quiet, all attention turns to economic data in the US, specifically jobs.
First, though, a quick roundup of what you might have missed this weekend: It wasn’t much, though there was interesting news today that S&P might torpedo the latest bailout plan for Greece proposed by French banks. Also, on Monday, Asian markets were up big, while European markets didn’t really go anywhere.
On Wednesday we get ADP and Challenger. Officially, analysts are looking for a mere 60K new jobs on the ADP report, which only measures private payrolls. Given how far off it’s been from the official Non-Farm Payrolls report, its impact on the market could be muted. Still, a huge number one direction or the other will be noted.
Also on Wednesday: ISM Services.
On Thursday, as always, is the initial claims report, which has flatlined lately just above 400K.
Also on Thursday: The ECB has a meeting, and the expectation is that Jean-Claude Trichet is in a hiking mood.
And then on Friday, the Super Bowl of economic reports, Non-Farm Payroll. Right now consensus is just at 80K after a string of bad reports.
But lately the data has been surprising (a little bit) to the upside, and you can sense some hope that the number comes in big to the upside. It will be huge.
Bottom line: The data has been coming in a bit better than expected lately and the market has really keyed off that. This week has the potential to confirm or break the trend.