Was June Just A Really Terrible Month?

Back in July, recession chatter really started to pick up as the June economic data came in.

But was it just a fluke, or the tail end of a few weakish months?

Here’s a look at the sequential change in retail sales this year.

The June decline was stomach clenching, but the July comeback was really nice.


Here’s a look at the sequential change in industrial production.

Growth in May and June was really mediocre, but those numbers have bounced back nicely in July.


Here’s a look at the sequential change in total non-farm payrolls.

Again, ugly May and June. Really nice July Jump.


Now here’s a look at year-over-year change in revolving credit.

We don’t have July data yet, but… June was unexpectedly ugly.


Anyway, the pattern throughout many datapoints is July is better than June.

There’s a good chance we’ll see a rebound there, and it really seems to blow apart any idea that the economy is in a recession.

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