Back in July, recession chatter really started to pick up as the June economic data came in.
But was it just a fluke, or the tail end of a few weakish months?
Here’s a look at the sequential change in retail sales this year.
The June decline was stomach clenching, but the July comeback was really nice.
Here’s a look at the sequential change in industrial production.
Growth in May and June was really mediocre, but those numbers have bounced back nicely in July.
Here’s a look at the sequential change in total non-farm payrolls.
Again, ugly May and June. Really nice July Jump.
Now here’s a look at year-over-year change in revolving credit.
We don’t have July data yet, but… June was unexpectedly ugly.
Anyway, the pattern throughout many datapoints is July is better than June.
There’s a good chance we’ll see a rebound there, and it really seems to blow apart any idea that the economy is in a recession.