Things aren’t going to get any better for investment banks any time soon.
On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley analysts set out key themes for banks in 2016.
Included in the note is this chart, which shows investment banking revenues have been trending down for the past few years, and are unlikely to move much higher in the near-term.
“For our global coverage, we expect FICC to fall (again) by -5% after -9% in 15 (including a weak Q4 ), equities flattish, and IBD down slightly at -3%, given challenges in HY and EM/Asia,” the note said.
The total revenue pool in 2016 is forecast to be $176 billion in 2016, down from $182 billion in 2015. The forecast for 2017 is $178 billion.
The numbers are similar to those put out by JPMorgan analyst Kian Abouhossein. Last week, he suggested the banks may have reached a “new normal”, forecasting flat industry revenues out to 2018.