Wall Street bonuses are set to fall, and it is 'more than a blip'

Wall Street bonuses are likely to dip between 5% and 10% at big banks this year, according to an annual industry survey published by consulting firm Johnson Associates.

But there’s one big bright spot, according to Alan Johnson, managing director of the firm.

“Private equity would be at the top of the hit parade,” he told Business Insider.

According to Johnson Associates’ annual compensation report, private equity professionals can expect bonuses to increase from five to 10% — and that doesn’t count ‘carry,’ or the money that they make from funds’ profits.

In the private equity business, Johnson Associates is expecting annual bonuses to rise, at a time where other Wall Street businesses — notably, investment banks and hedge funds — are set to pay out smaller year-end payouts.

“It’s more than a blip,” Johnson said. “2016 is looking tougher, too.”

It isn’t entirely unexpected at big banks, which appeared to brace for lower bonus numbers earlier this fall.

Johnson Associates report says hedge fund pros can expect bonus payouts to fall as much as 15% and that asset managers’ bonuses will decline by about 5%.

On the investment and commercial banking side, management will pay 10% less on bonuses and investment banking underwriting bonus pay is expected to fall by as much as 15%.

Fixed income sales and trading bonuses are expected to fall by as much as 20%, according to the report.

On the investment and commercial banking side, the lone bright spot for year-end payouts is investment banking advisory services, which could see bonuses increase by as much as 20%, according to Johnson Associates. That comes as some Wall Street banks have seen better-than-expected performance out of their traditional investment banking divisions.

The firm tracks bonuses’ rises (and, falls) year-over-year, and this is what post-recession bonus pay looks like:

Screen Shot 2015 11 09 at 11.27.05 AMJohnson AssociatesJohnson Associates tracks Wall Street bonuses’ trajectory over the years.

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