BTIG’s Dan Greenhaus sends out a mid-day note titled:Has the President Already Sewn Up Reelection? Looking at the Electoral Map favours His Odds.
The note makes the point — which is now travelling through much of the media — that Obama has a big built-in lead in the electoral college that will be hard for Romney to overcome.
If you’ll recall, Greenhaus raised eyebrows several days ago when he said he had only met one person who was predicting a Romney victory. And Greenhaus rolls with a Wall Street crowd (his clients) so when he says something like that, it’s pretty noteworthy.
We’ve seen a lot of analysis that discusses the election, but most of the time the analyst just punts to something like InTrade or the Pollster.com average, showing that Obama is in the lead. So far we haven’t seen any folks actually predicting an outcome one way or another.
However with conventional wisdom going the way it is, it will be interesting to see if Wall Street soon starts to vocally assume that Obama will win again.
As for Obama’s electoral map dominance, Greenhaus points to this RealClearPolitics electoral map, showing that even with several big stats declared “toss ups”, Obama is almost to 270.
Photo: Real Clear Politics
Locking down just a couple of the grey states (or just one if it’s Florida) would clinch the election.
One last point, which is that if investors are worried about Obama winning (because of fiscal cliff stuff and so forth) they’re certainly not expressing it, as this pro-Obama conventional wisdom emerges as stocks are near their highs of the year.