Is there really a chance that the Trillion Dollar Coin will be used as a way to avert a debt ceiling crisis?TD Securities’ analyst Millan Mulraine believes there’s a non-trivial 5% chance that it will be minted.
“Minting a $1T coin: Outside of an agreement, there are other options available to the White House to avoid a default. There appears to be some serious consideration being given to the minting of a $1T coin as a plausible alternative to a default. If this is done, it could effectively provide additional room for funding government operation without the need for incurring new debt. This is akin to debt monetization. Probability 5%.“
Here are the other possible outcomes, according to the report:
Some other possibilities and odds:
- Deal by mid-march 51%
- Small extension: 39%
- 14th Amendment getting invoked: 4%
- No deal/default: 1%
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