Wages are stagnating.
Average hourly earnings in the April non-farm payroll report increased by three cents to $US24.87. That’s a 0.1% jump from the previous month, and a 2.2% annual increase.
The expectation was for 0.2% growth from the previous month and 2.3% growth annually.
In March, average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month-over-month and 2.1% at an annual pace.
Solid wage growth is seen as one missing piece to creating a picture of full employment. This month’s wage growth was expected to be slightly higher than it has been over the past few months. From Wells Fargo’s Thursday preview of this month’s report: “Following the acceleration seen in the year-over-year pace of private sector wage & salaries from the Q1 Employment Cost Index report, confirming evidence will be eagerly awaited with average hourly earnings (AHE).”
New York Stock Exchange floor trader Kenny Polcari had this to say in his Morning Thoughts newsletter:
And today’s expectation? +0.2%, which has been the trend…..but what the mkt will look for is an upside surprise – or as they say ‘better than expected’ – maybe something better than +0.4% – it will also look for an upward revision to the prior report signalling a tightening labour mkt giving the Fed some ammunition in the discussion about the direction of rates. (blah, blah, blah)…..
If this were to happen then look for Janet- an American Patriot to ride her horse down the ‘Freedom Trail in Boston’ screaming
“Higher rates are coming! Higher rates are coming!” (or maybe not….)