- It’s been another volatile 24 hours on global markets.
- Veteran strategist Richard “Coppo” Coppleson had a neat summary of the issues in his closely-followed daily note today.
- There was also a stat about the last three times the S&P fell by more than 3% in a single session in December.
- You may want an adult beverage close by.
In his closely-followed “Coppo Report” daily note on Wednesday, Sydney-based strategist Richard Coppleson had a series of prescient — and troubling — observations following another wild 24 hours in global financial markets.
Wall Street trade on Tuesday was something of a bloodbath, with the major indices being down 3% or more, before a bit of a recovery in Asian trade. This kind of volatility has become increasingly regular as the Trump administration’s position on its trade war with China continues to evolve and some analysts are starting to say this is the start of a major downturn for global equities.
And in Australia today there was a significant development with data showing GDP growth slowed by much more than expected in the September quarter, meaning the economy is likely to significantly undershoot optimistic forecasts for the year and leading some analysts to change their tune on the trajectory of official interest rates.
First, Coppleson — the markets strategist at Bell Potter Securities in Sydney and the former head of equity strategy at Goldman Sachs in Australia — neatly summed up the big question for financial markets:
… volatility in the last 3 months has sent many instos / investors to the sidelines while this tug of war plays out.
Is this just a normal -10% shakeout / correction??
Or is it the start of the long overdue Bear mkt??
The answer is… when does the US go into recession – If its 2020 (or beyond) then it’s a correction – but if 2019 then mkts are in for a prolonged tough time.
He followed this up with a somewhat chilling warning on the outlook for the Australian economy. Given his experience, a lot of people pay attention to his various predictions, and here’s what he had to say about Australia.
Here in Aust we not only have the US to worry about but in 2019 a change in Govt with policies that will hit the stock market, hit the housing market and thus the households, retail & consumption and possibly there is a very very good chance that I think Australia goes into recession BEFORE the US. It will be painful as it’s been 28 years since or last recession & many will not see it coming & have no idea how bad it can be.
He followed this with an equally chilling factoid about the overnight Wall Street falls.
Look there is an odd stat that will haunt a few… but there it is… the S&P 500 was down -3.2% last night. Now apparently there have only been 3 other years where the mkt had a -3% day in December…
Wait for it … 1987, 2000 & 2008…
I’ll just leave that one there ….
We’re happy to just leave that one there too.
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