With gamers increasingly gravitating towards hits, yesterday we looked at FBR Research Heath Terry’s predictions on the video games most like to be commercially successful in 2009. Now, we add picks from Cowen analyst Doug Creutz (who also thinks would-be PS3 buyers will defect en masse to the Wii):
Activision Blizzard (ATVI): Lots that Doug likes here: Prototype, Singularity, the Bizarre Creations racing title, a new Guitar Hero release, a new Tony Hawk, a new Call of Duty, and Starcraft 2 and Diablo 3. Significant overlap between Doug’s picks and Heath’s: Heath mentioned Tony Hawk, Diablo, and the Bizarre Creations game.
SAI continues to look to Starcraft 2 as 2009’s breakout star.
Electronic Arts (ERTS): Madden NFL 10, NCAA Football 10, Skate 2. (Note: Heath says EA Sports has been slipping for years.) Also Sims 3, the Beatles-themed Rock Band, and “at least one major IP potential hit, Dante’s Inferno.”
SAI loves Harmonix’s Rock Band, but we wonder: How significant is the overlap between ageing Beatles fans and gamers?
Take-Two (TTWO): First ever Grand Theft Auto release for the DS, Chinatown Wars. Also Bioshock 2, Mafia 2, and potential new IP hit Borderlands.
SAI’s question: The Nintendo DS is geared towards children — is Grand Theft Auto a good fit to the platform?
THQ (THQI): New Red Faction game, new WWE game, and a new UFC franchise.
Also coming: Highly anticipated new Halo titles from Microsoft (MSFT) for the X360, and both Killzone 2 and God of War 3 published by Sony (SNE) for its PS3 will do well.
But caution is due: Look for weak sales industry-wide in the first half of 2009, there’s not much due out until late in the year.
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