As noted last week, we are analysing the overcrowded video-sharing sector, to determine which companies have a chance of surviving the inevitable shakeout and which will be roadkill. After publishing our preliminary findings, we received some helpful information. We also updated our “Traffic” data to use only data from Compete.
As a result, we now have a more optimistic outlook for Motionbox and Video Egg, two of the companies we had labelled “ROADKILL.” Alas, we still think many other video-sharing companies are toast, and before we publish our formal conclusions, we would love to hear from more of you ([email protected]).
For example, Crackle, Spike, Megavideo, Revver, Clipshack, and Hulu–do you really agree with us that you are done for? If not, why not? Do we have the right traffic data? Do we misunderstand your strategy, which is actually truly differentiated?
And Heavy, Takkle, Break, Megavideo, DailyMotion, Vimeo, et al, don’t go getting too comfortable with your “SALE” categorization. It’s just preliminary right now, and as your competitors weigh in, we may decide that you actually are ROADKILL. Even YouTube and blip.tv, two of our WINNERS, shouldn’t feel safe just yet.
To encourage you to stand up and make your case for survival, we will gladly print your arguments with our final analysis. Please send us a note detailing why, in this cast of dozens, you will beat the long odds and build a sustainable, profitable business. Please tell us why your strategy is actually differentiated (don’t just list your cool features, please–if they were that cool, your traffic would be higher), and explain how you’ll survive in a world increasingly dominated by elephants (YouTube) and niche sites (blip.tv). Please don’t bother arguing that “the video market will be different–dozens of generalist sites will survive,” because it won’t be. (We will also keep these arguments on background, if you like).
In the meantime, we will continue to refine our analysis, which we will publish by the end of the month.
Video-Sharing Shakeout: Picking the Winners and Losers
Current Assessment of Video Sharing Companies: WINNERS, SELLERS, and ROADKILL
Economics of Online Video 1: One Tough Business
Economics of Online Video 2: Unit P&L Analysis
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