Apple Will Sell At Least 10 Million Verizon iPhones The First Year

iPhone verizon

How many Apple iPhones will Verizon Wireless sell once it starts selling iPhones? (Probably in 2011 sometime.)

At least 10 million iPhones in the first year, we estimate, generating $6 billion or more of incremental revenue for Apple.

That’s big growth — more than we think many people are expecting — and well worth the cost of making a second version of the iPhone that works on Verizon’s network. And it will probably reduce Google’s Android market share in the U.S., a win-win for Apple.

How did we figure that?

AT&T activated about 14 million new iPhones over the past four quarters on a subscriber base that’s now a little more than 90 million. (Of those activations, about 10 million were by existing AT&T subscribers.)

Verizon’s subscriber base is also about 90 million, and we don’t expect iPhone adoption to be wildly different on Verizon than it has been on AT&T. Maybe somewhat less, because Verizon folks already have high-end Android phones, but not much less.

Plus, Verizon could easily convince a bunch of AT&T iPhone subscribers to jump over.

For perspective, if Apple were to have sold 10 million incremental iPhones over the past four quarters, that would have represented around 25% growth over its roughly 40 million shipments during that time.

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