US unemployment rate before initial FOMC rate hikes following recessions

From Macquarie Research:

We keep our long-held view on the timing of lift off for the Fed funds rate in June-15, a view that consensus has moved toward in recent months as evidence of declining labour slack has grown with the unemployment rate now falling to 5.5%, below the level it reached when the Fed tightened in June 2004 and more than one percentage point below what has typically been the case. Alongside recent commentary from Chair Yellen, this suggests the “patient” language will be removed from the FOMC statement in March, a development which would mark the effective end of the Fed’s forward guidance.

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