Business Insider reader Jim Laird created this animated chart tracking Treasury yield curves compared to the actual yield on a three month treasury.
The yield curve is a line that plots a set of forward looking interest rates at a given point in time. A US Treasury yield curve would connect today’s yields for 3-month, 6-month, 12-month, 2-year, 5-year, 1-year, and 30-year Treasury securities.
“I wrote a script that figured out the yield curve at every date from 1982 to present and compared the results to the actual yield on a 3-month Treasury,” Laird said. “Then I turned it into a movie. The red parts are overestimates, the blue are underestimates.”
An inverted yield curve, that is when long-term yields are lower than short-term yields, has a long track record of occurring before recessions.
Edited by Matthew Stuart
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