The U.S. got a ridiculously tough World Cup draw.
They’re with Ghana, Germany, and Portugal.
It’s probably the most difficult group in the entire tournament. Germany is one of the best teams in the world. Portugal has Cristiano Ronaldo. Ghana has eliminated the U.S. from the last two World Cups.
But according to a model created ESPN’s Nate Silver, the U.S. chances of advancing are actually pretty good, all things considered.
The U.S. has a 39.4% chance of making it to the knockout stage, according to Silver’s model. Before the draw they had a 44% chance, so the group actually didn’t change things that much.
Germany has a 91.6% chance to advance, Portugal has a 40.3% chance, and Ghana has a 28.6% chance.
Silver says everyone is freaking out about the draw because Ghana knocked out the U.S. in the last two World Cups:
USA’s draw is bad but not terrible. Perhaps some irrational fear of Ghana because of our history with them.
— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) December 6, 2013
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