At 8:30 a.m. ET, we’ll get data on US retail sales for the month of December.
Economists estimate that retail sales fell 0.1% month-on-month, compared to a prior gain of 0.2% according to Bloomberg.
Excluding the ever-changing costs of automobiles and gas, they forecast that “core” retail sales rose 0.2% month-on-month.
In a preview to clients, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Michelle Meyer noted two things that could complicate this month’s data.
First, Cyber Monday was in November this year, and so some of the spending may not reflect in the December numbers.
Also, while there will likely be post-analysis of how the warm winter weather impacted sales, Meyer’s research shows that there’s no evidence that milder weather supports consumer spending.
“Taking into account the cross currents for December, we conclude that the consumer ended 2015 on a somewhat sluggish note,” Meyer wrote. “While we continue to look for a healthy job market to drive spending, we cannot help but be left feeling cautious.”