Global markets are acting like the world economy is about to tank.
And while signs out of industries like global shipping point to a slower growth trajectory globally, data out of the world’s largest economy are simply not indicating recession.
On Thursday morning the latest report on initial jobless claims in the US — a weekly survey on how many people have filed for unemployment insurance — fell to 269,000, lower than expected by the markets and a clear sign that the labour market is still strong.
As Chris Rupkey at MUFG wrote Thursday, “You can worry all you like, but the stake in the heart of every recession is job losses and that rising trend in unemployment claims the last several weeks has reversed today in one fell swoop.”
Earlier this week we pointed to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, indicating that first quarter GDP growth will come in around 2.5% as a sign the US economy isn’t trending towards recession.
As of Thursday morning this measure was sitting at the same level.
And now, let us add claims to the list.
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