JPMORGAN: Obsolescence Will Assert Itself In The Form Of A Sharp Rise In Spending

empty idle chinese steel factory manufacturing

U.S. GDP has been on the rise since the financial crisis, but it has been sluggish.

And with corporate revenues stagnating, earnings growth is slowing significantly.

However, this is no reason to be bearish about the future, argues J.P. Morgan’s Tom Lee.

“There is pent-up demand in the U.S.,” said Lee as he cranked up his target for the S&P 500.

“As for the U.S. and to a lesser extent for Europe, this is more than “easing financial conditions” but a story of pent-up demand,” said Lee addressing economic growth prospects. “As shown in Figure 8, investment/durables spending in the U.S. remains at 60-year lows. And at a time when the age of capital- stock is near record highs (see Figure 9/Figure 10). This is a formula, in our view, for obsolescence asserting itself in the form of an eventual sharp rise in spending.”

  • “The average age of equipment is near record highs. For instance, in Figure 9 below, average age of residential equipment has risen in recent years (look at the slope) and is at levels seen in the 90s (around the time of the last rise in equipment spending).”
  • “Similarly, the average age of structures has risen and is at the highest levels in more than 50 years (see Figure 10).”
private goods

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