The IEA is out with its latest monthly energy outlook, and for the most part there’s nothing too significant.
Here are the key comments regarding global demand:
Global oil demand for 2011 is expected to rise by +1.6% or +1.3 mb/d year‐on‐year to 87.8 mb/d.
This is based on IMF economic assumptions (World Economic Outlook, April 2010), which see global
economic growth reaching +4.3% in 2011, compared with +4.1% in 2010 (this report does not
integrate the last IMF partial update, released at the time of writing). It also assumes that global oil
prices will average $79.40/bbl in nominal terms, and that oil intensity will decline by 2.6%. Oil demand
growth in 2011 is expected to be driven entirely by non‐OECD countries (+3.8% or +1.6 mb/d), while
the OECD is projected to resume its gentle decline (‐0.5% or ‐0.2 mb/d). Moreover, given the
prevailing structure of economic activity, with government stimuli favouring energy‐intensive sectors,
growth will be led by distillates, LPG/naphtha, and gasoline. The global oil demand outlook for 2010
remains largely unchanged at 86.5 mb/d (+2.1% or +1.8 mb/d versus 2009).
Meanwhile, this map of global supply changes is in fact interesting, especially as it shows how quickly supply growth in the US has topped off.
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