US Oil Supply Growth Set To Shrink Dramatically In 2011

The IEA is out with its latest monthly energy outlook, and for the most part there’s nothing too significant.

Here are the key comments regarding global demand:

Global oil demand for 2011 is expected to rise by +1.6% or +1.3 mb/d year‐on‐year to 87.8 mb/d. 
This is based on IMF economic assumptions (World Economic Outlook, April 2010), which see global 
economic  growth  reaching  +4.3%  in  2011,  compared  with  +4.1%  in  2010  (this  report  does  not 
integrate the last IMF partial update, released at the time of writing). It also assumes that global oil 
prices will average $79.40/bbl in nominal terms, and that oil intensity will decline by 2.6%. Oil demand 
growth in 2011 is expected to be driven entirely by non‐OECD countries (+3.8% or +1.6 mb/d), while 
the  OECD  is  projected  to  resume  its  gentle  decline  (‐0.5%  or  ‐0.2  mb/d).  Moreover,  given  the 
prevailing structure of economic activity, with government stimuli favouring energy‐intensive sectors, 
growth will be led by distillates, LPG/naphtha, and gasoline. The global oil demand outlook for 2010 
remains largely unchanged at 86.5 mb/d (+2.1% or +1.8 mb/d versus 2009). 

Meanwhile, this map of global supply changes is in fact interesting, especially as it shows how quickly supply growth in the US has topped off.


Photo: IEA

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