INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES 1.1 per cent

Michigan factory

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Headline growth rose 1.1 per cent in November, well exceeding expectations of a 0.3 per cent expansion.

According to the report, the robust figures reflect a rebound from Hurricane Sandy.

Manufacturing production rose 1.1 per cent as well, higher than expectations of a 0.5 per cent gain.

The capacity utilization rate rose to 78.4 per cent, higher than expectations of a tick up to 78.0 per cent.

Below, the full text from the release:

Industrial production increased 1.1 per cent in November after having fallen 0.7 per cent in October. The gain in November is estimated to have largely resulted from a recovery in production for industries that had been negatively affected by Hurricane Sandy, which hit the Northeast region in late October. In November, manufacturing output increased 1.1 per cent after having decreased 1.0 per cent in October; in addition to the storm-related rebound, a sizable rise in the production of motor vehicles and parts boosted factory output in November. The output of utilities advanced 1.0 per cent, and production at mines rose 0.8 per cent. At 97.5 per cent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in November was 2.5 per cent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry increased 0.7 percentage point to 78.4 per cent, a rate 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2011) average.

Market Groups

The production of consumer goods rose 1.2 per cent in November, reversing a decline of the same magnitude in October. The output of durable consumer goods increased 2.8 per cent in November. Among durable consumer goods categories, the index for automotive products rose 3.4 per cent, its first increase in five months; the indexes for home electronics; for appliances, furniture, and carpeting; and for miscellaneous goods all posted smaller increases. The production of nondurable consumer goods advanced 0.7 per cent. The index for consumer energy products rose 0.9 per cent after having fallen 0.7 per cent in October, and the index for non-energy nondurables increased 0.7 per cent in November following a decline of 1.9 per cent in October. Among non-energy nondurables, the output of foods and tobacco, of clothing, and of paper products all registered sizable gains in November, while the output of chemical products edged down.

The output of business equipment moved up 1.2 per cent in November and was 7.4 per cent above its year-earlier level. The production of transit equipment increased 2.5 per cent, and the production of industrial and other equipment rose 1.3 per cent; output in both categories stepped down noticeably in October. The index for information processing equipment fell 0.4 per cent in November, but it remained 4.0 per cent above its year-earlier level.

The output of defence and space equipment was unchanged in November after decreasing 1.9 per cent in October; however, the index stood 0.8 per cent above its year-earlier level.

Among nonindustrial supplies, the output of construction supplies increased 1.4 per cent in November, its largest monthly gain since February. The production of business supplies rose 0.7 per cent in November following three consecutive months of declines.

The output of materials to be processed further in the industrial sector advanced 1.0 per cent in November after having edged down 0.1 per cent in October. The indexes for energy materials and for durable materials posted sizable gains in November, while the index for nondurable materials rose moderately. The output of durable materials increased 1.6 per cent after three months of decreases. The index for consumer parts rose substantially, boosted in particular by motor vehicle-related production, and stood 17.8 per cent above its year-earlier level; the output of equipment parts increased 0.3 per cent in November after having moved down 0.5 per cent in October. In November, the index for nondurable materials gained 0.4 per cent; the indexes for textiles and for paper moved up, while the production of chemicals was unchanged. The output of energy materials rose 0.9 per cent.

Industry Groups

Manufacturing output rose 1.1 per cent in November following a decrease of 1.0 per cent in October. Nearly all the decline in factory output in October is estimated to have been related to Hurricane Sandy, and the increase in November reflects a post-hurricane rebound in production as well as the solid advance in the output of motor vehicles and parts. Within manufacturing, increases were widespread in November across both durable and nondurable goods industries. The factory operating rate rose to 76.6 per cent, a rate 2.2 percentage points below its long-run average.

The production of durable goods rose 1.6 per cent in November. Output increased in all major categories of durables other than computer and electronic products, and aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment, which both decreased. Gains of more than 2 per cent were recorded in the indexes for wood products; for primary metals; for electrical equipment, appliances, and components; for motor vehicles and parts; and for miscellaneous manufacturing. Capacity utilization for durable goods manufacturing was 76.7 per cent, a rate 0.4 percentage point below its long-run average.

The output of nondurables rose 0.5 per cent in November, and it was 0.6 per cent above its year-earlier level. For November, most major categories of nondurables moved up, although the indexes for petroleum and coal products and for chemicals edged down. Capacity utilization for nondurable manufacturing was 77.9 per cent, a rate 3.0 percentage points below its long-run average.

Production in the non-NAICS manufacturing industries (logging and publishing) rose 1.3 per cent in November after having fallen 4.0 per cent in October when the hurricane held down the output of publishers.

In November, mining output advanced 0.8 per cent. Capacity utilization at mines moved up 0.5 percentage point to 91.1 per cent, a rate 3.8 percentage points above its long-run average. The output of utilities rose 1.0 per cent in November, and gains were posted for both the electric and the natural gas categories. The operating rate for utilities increased 0.6 percentage point to 75.3 per cent, a rate 11.0 percentage points below its long-run average.

Capacity utilization rates in November for industries grouped by stage of process were as follows: At the crude stage, utilization increased 0.5 percentage point to 88.5 per cent, a rate 2.2 percentage points above its long-run average; at the primary and semifinished stages, utilization rose 0.9 percentage point to 75.8 per cent, a rate 5.3 percentage points below its long-run average; and at the finished stage, utilization moved up 0.5 percentage point to 76.8 per cent, a rate 0.4 percentage point lower than its long-run average.

Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization at the end of March 2013. The revised IP indexes will incorporate detailed data from the 2011 Annual Survey of Manufactures, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. Annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 2011 will also be incorporated. The update will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition, the estimation methods for some series may be changed. Any modifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present.

Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate data through the fourth quarter of 2012 from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity, which covers manufacturing, along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organisations.

Once the revision is published, it will be available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. The 2013 release schedule, however, is available now on the website.

Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS.

Click here for the full release >

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ORIGINAL: Minutes away from the release of November industrial production numbers in the United States at 9:15 AM ET.

The consensus estimate is for industrial production growth of 0.3 per cent after contracting 0.4 per cent in October.

We will have the release LIVE at 9:15. Click here for updates >

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