The global markets continue to swing erraticly in every direction.
US stock market futures are in the red with Dow futures down 126 points, S&P futures down 15 points, and Nasdaq futures down 32 points.
This follows a huge Thursday when the Dow jumped 369 points (2.3%) and the S&P spiked 47 points (2.4%)
Markets in Europe are mostly in the red with Germany’s DAX down 0.6% and France’s CAC 40 down 0.3%. Britain’s FTSE 100 is up 0.1%.
Friday was massive in China where the Shanghai Composite surged 4.8%.
The pros are bullish
“Summer sell-offs tend to reverse,” Credit Suisse’s Andrew Garthwaite said in a note to clients. “70% of the time following a summer sell-off, markets have made new highs within a year. The inconsistency of some of the recent market moves suggests a degree of panic selling (in the past two weeks bond yields are up, cyclicals moved in line with defensives and the dollar is down, despite worries on growth and China).”
Garthwaite echoes a lot of the level-headed bullish calls being made across Wall Street amid the current volatility.
“It might not feel like it, but this latest market correction is a typical annual event, especially in an ageing bull market,” Citi’s Robert Buckland wrote on Thursday. “The macro driver seems to have been concern about the impact of an EM/China slowdown on the broader global economy. While there are some worrying developments, our bear market checklist suggests that it is still too early to call the end of this bull market. Citi equity strategists recommend buying into this dip, which our breadth indicators suggest is already well-developed.”
Citi’s US equity strategist thinks there’s at least a 90% chance that the markets are higher 12 months from now.
All eyes turn to Jackson Hole
The economic data schedule is light in the US. At 8:30 a.m. ET we’ll get the July personal income and spending report. The August University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, which will be released at 10 a.m., should be interesting as it will capture some of the reactions the recent bout of market volatility.
Meanwhile, central bankers around the world gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium. This year’s theme is “Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy,” which is timely as many economists debate whether the threat of deflation or disinflation is low enough that the Fed can start tightening monetary policy soon.
Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will chime in Saturday morning while participating on a panel. Economists expect him to address recent market volatility in addition to everything else.
“He may be a little less dovish than he might have been 36-48 hours ago as markets round the world have seen a remarkable recovery however the gyrations must surely be making the Fed very nervous about a move in just under 3 weeks,” Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid wrote.
“In the meantime, a number of officials are scheduled to share their views today via various media outlets,” SocGen’s Michala Marcussen and Aneta Markowska write. “The list includes Fed Presidents Bullard, Kocherlakota, Mester and Lockhart who are sure to give opposing views.”
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