According to the recent consumer confidence survey in the US, the consumer confidence index has slightly inclined during July compare with June’s index; this index declined during the past couple of months. The index stood in July at 59.5 (195=100) an increase from 57.6 in June.
American consumers’ short term outlook in U.S. business has slightly improved. On the other hand, the consumers’ assessment of current day conditions continued to weaken in July.
This consumer confidence index might be among the reasons for the recent rise in crude oil prices yesterday: according to a paper by Roache et. al (2008) on the effects of news on commodities prices including crude oil prices, there was a positive significant coefficient for “consumer confidence” i.e. this news has a positive linear affect on crude oil prices. On the other hand, since oil prices moved very modestly yesterday, it’s hard to isolate the effect of this survey on the changes in oil prices.
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