After zero growth in U.S. box office receipts last year, the movie industry is having a pretty good year.
Summer box office receipts ended up 3.5% year-over-year, according to Barclays. Transformers 3 and Harry Potter 7B led the way, while surprise hits Rise of The Planet Of The Apes, Bridesmaids and The Help made up for partial flops Kung Fu Panda 2, Cars 2, Pirates 4, Green Lantern and Super 8.
Holiday sales can easily beat last year, which saw a 17% y/y decline in December and a 29% y/y decline in January.
At least six big hits are yet to come, according to Barclays:
While November’s Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 will likely be the highest grossing movie in the fourth quarter, the holiday season features severalmovies with box office potential. These include Sherlock Holmes 2, Mission Impossible 4, Alvin and the Chipmunks 3, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and TheAdventures of Tintin, all of which we estimate will gross over $100 million.
Barclays recommends investing in movie exhibitors, with a neutral rating on the industry.
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