These are the 4 factors that will shape bank earnings season

Third quarter earnings are on the way and big banks will lead off a season that is being approached with outright dread in some corners of the market.

With prospects dimming that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in 2015, big banks are facing the prospect of cheap money being a hindrance.

Until interest rates begin to rise, the returns from lending money will remain relatively low.

Commodity shocks also reverberating through the financial system. Bank trading desks have been hit, while banks’ may have to take additional write-downs on energy-related loans.

Business Insider rounds up what bank analysts are looking for — and what’s worrying Wall Street banks:

Mortgage originations could fall

Big banks have been stepping away from mortgage originations, with lending standards tightening.
Christopher Whalen, senior managing director at the Kroll Bond Rating Agency, said that mortgage origination in the second half of 2015 probably won't be as strong as it was for the first half of the year. JP Morgan, for example, has backed away from Federal Housing Administration loans and CEO Jamie Dimon suggested President Barack Obama's administration showing a prosecutorial zeal for big banks was to blame.

Investment banking fees will fall


'Expectations for banking are down, single-digits,' said Kenneth Leon, global research director at S&P Capital IQ, who covers investment banks including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

One area in which most banks are certain to disappoint: IPOs. Market volatility, notably in China, held back public offerings in the third quarter.

'IPOs have been weak all year,' Leon told Business Insider.

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