Credit Suisse’s Andrew Garthwaite raised his 2014 target for the S&P 500 today.
He now sees it rallying to 1,940 by the end of next year, up from an earlier target of 1,900. And in his research note, he offered 10 reasons why we should expect this rally.
He also identified some risks to his forecast, and one of them was a bit unexpected.
“The key risks to markets are US growth being too strong (leading to earlier-than- expected tapering), China growth surprising on the downside, too much corporate spending (bad for margins and depreciation charges) and a European political event,” said Garthwaite.
It certainly seems a bit ironic that stocks would take a hit because economic growth is stronger than expected.
Of course the risk of liquidity being unexpectedly sucked out of the market is a hazard everyone should be worried about.
For the most part, Wall Street’s strategists think stocks can rally even as the the Federal Reserve begins tapering its quantitative easing program. Indeed, Garthwaite’s forecast assumes the Fed begins tapering in January 2014 and ends in September 2014.
The Fed’s next FOMC meeting will be held on Dec. 17-18, which appears to be the earliest the Fed begins to taper.
It’s worth noting that many bears have been increasingly warning that the stock market may be in a bubble doomed to burst.
Ironically, Garthwaite thinks this possibility would make his forecast look too bearish.
“On the upside, one risk is a bubble in the equity market,” he added.
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