What The Unemployment And Labour Force Participation Rates Would Be If All Of The Discouraged Workers Came Back

Discouraged workersBusiness Insider/Matthew Boesler (data from St. Louis Fed)Chart 1: Those not in the labour force who currently want a job.

The unemployment rate has been falling sharply alongside a sizable drop in labour force participation.

The labour force participation rate is the ratio of Americans counted in the labour force to the total civilian noninstitutional adult population, while the unemployment rate is the ratio of those without a job who are counted in the labour force (i.e., unemployed and searching for work) to the total labour force.

Because the labour force is expanding at a slower rate than the population, the participation rate is going down. And because the ranks of the unemployed are falling as the labour force expands, the unemployment rate is going down.

One of the overarching concerns in this recovery has been the large wave of unemployed workers who, in the wake of the recession, were unable to find a job for an extended period of time, became discouraged, and gave up looking for work. This caused them to cease being counted as (a) in the labour force and (b) among the ranks of the unemployed, thereby causing both the participation rate and the unemployment rate to drop.

Most of the drop in the labour force participation rate can be attributed to demographics — workers from the “baby boomer” generation are retiring, and disability is rising as the population ages).

However, the surge in discouraged workers outside the labour force — from a nadir of 4.4 million in October 2007 to peak levels just under 7.0 million in August 2012 (Chart 1) — has had a substantial impact on how the employment figures are calculated.

In December, the unemployment rate was 6.7% and the labour force participation rate was 62.8%.

Where would the two figures be if all of the discouraged workers that left the labour force since October 2007 came back, and were officially counted as unemployed?

Chart 2 shows that the participation rate would be a 0.7 percentage points higher, at 63.5%.

Civilian labour force participation rateBusiness Insider/Matthew Boesler (data from St. Louis Fed)Chart 2: The actual labour force participation rate (blue line) versus where it would be if all of the discouraged workers that left since October 2007 came back (red line).

Chart 3 shows that the unemployment rate, meanwhile, would be a full percentage point higher, at 7.7%.

Unemployment rateBusiness Insider/Matthew Boesler (data from St. Louis Fed)Chart 3: The actual unemployment rate (blue line) versus where it would be if all of the discouraged workers that left since October 2007 came back (red line).

Could unemployment rise going forward if a wave of previously discouraged workers re-enters the labour force?

Drew Matus, deputy chief U.S. economist at UBS, thinks this is unlikely.

“Although we believe that there could be a modest cyclical rise in participation as the economy improves, we believe the likely scale of the increase will not significantly alter the basic equation: payroll growth averaging 200,000 per month should continue to pull down the unemployment rate under all but the most aggressive labour force expansion estimates,” says Matus.

“As a consequence, the unemployment rate should continue to decline and there is downside risk to our year-end 2014 forecast unemployment rate of 6.4%.”

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