UKIP, the upstart anti-EU/anti-immigration party that has been causing a stir in the UK, have come just two points below the Britain’s traditionally dominant right wing party in a new poll.
The poll is the lowest result seen yet for the Conservatives, and the highest seen for UKIP, Political Betting’s Mike Smithson points out — part of a wider trend if we look at the last few years of data.
Here’s how the poll from Survnation looks like:
General Election Voting Intention, Change Since Survation poll, May 1st
Conservative: 24% (-5)
Labour: 35% (-1)
Liberal Democrat: 11% (-1)
UKIP: 22% (+6)
Other: 8% (nc)
According to Survnation’s Damian Lyons Lowe, UKIP and the Conservatives were neck and neck on 23% before the group adjusted for those who answered ‘don’t know’ or refused to answer.
Crucially, this is the first poll Survnation have conducted since the weekend’s report in the Telegraph that a close ally of Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron had called Tory activists (many of whom sympathize with UKIP) “swivel-eyed loons”.
UKIP’s apparent success comes despite a number of scandals that have engulfed the party, from the member who was allegedly photographed making a Nazi salute to party leader Nigel Farage hiding in a pub to escape an angry crowd calling him “racist scum.”
The poll gives Ed Miliband’s Labour Party a comfortable lead, which lies with Nate Silver’s early prediction.
The next general election in the UK is set for 1015.