Economists Are Now Warning Of A Triple-Dip Recession In The UK

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LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s economy shrank more than expected in the last three months of 2012, coming closer to its third recession in four years, after lower output from the North Sea and manufacturers.The Office for National Statistics said on Friday that Britain’s gross domestic product fell 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter – a sharper fall than the 0.1 per cent decline seen by analysts. GDP grew by 0.9 per cent between July and September.

The news will be a blow for Britain’s Conservative-led government, which only a day earlier defended its austerity program against criticism from the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist.

The economy is now 3.3 per cent smaller than its peak in Q1 2008, recovering only about half the output lost during the financial crisis – a worse performance than other major economies.

Britain’s economy also suffered a mild recession from late 2011 to mid 2012.

The biggest driver for the fall in GDP was a 10.2 per cent quarterly drop in mining and quarrying output, the biggest since records began in 1997, driven by disruption to North Sea oil and gas fields.

This knocked 0.18 per cent of GDP, while slightly smaller amounts of damage were done by a falls in factory output and in the ‘government and other services’ category, where the London Olympics had boosted sports and recreation services in the third quarter.

At the start of 2013 one-off factors, such as January’s snow, may seal the fate of an economy on a knife-edge between growth and contraction, with major retailer John Lewis already warning on Friday that snow had hit sales growth.

Britain’s chief central banker Mervyn King expects no more than a “gentle recovery” this year, while this week the International Monetary Fund cut its 2013 forecast for British economic growth to 1.0 per cent from 1.1 per cent predicted in October.

However, even such lackluster growth could be derailed, as some analysts and business groups warn, by a hit to firms’ and consumers’ confidence from talk of a triple-dip recession.

That prospect will add to pressure on the ruling coalition of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats to loosen its deficit-cutting drive and bolster the economy, or risk a hammering in the 2015 elections.

Output in Britain’s service sector – which makes up more than three quarters of GDP – was flat per cent in the fourth quarter after rising 1.2 per cent in the third.

Industrial output was 1.8 per cent lower, while construction – which accounts for less than 7 per cent of GDP – grew by 0.3 per cent.

(Reporting by David Milliken and Olesya Dmitracova)

Copyright (2013) Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions

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