11:40 – Current Score:
Labour, 149; Conservative, 196; Liberal Democrats, 29
We’ll have full coverage of further results starting early tomorrow morning at the Business Insider.
11:35 – This is heading to a hung parliament. Markets do not appear to be taking this news negatively, with the pound still not plummeting, though drama should be expected overnight into tomorrow. UK bonds are in positive territory.
The likely result is the Gordon Brown will be out as Labour leader, and a coalition of some sort will rule Britain. A Conservative majority could still occur, but it is much more likely we will see a Con – Lib Dem or Labour – Lib Dem coalition start to take shape tomorrow.
11:31 – Here’s Where We Stand In The Polls:
Labour, 146; Conservative, 189; Liberal Democrats, 28
11:13 – rumours that key Labour Party member Ed Balls may have his seat under threat. His seat is in a recount, according to FiveThirtyEight.
11:10 – The Guardian’s map points out Conservative gains, and reminds us we’re only halfway through counting this thing.
11:06 – And your current scores:
Labour, 123; Conservative, 157; Liberal Democrats, 23
11:04 PM – Getting You Up To Speed:
- The Conservatives are surging in the results, with the Liberal Democrats performing better than early on.
- Cameron has said that Labour has lost the mandate to govern. He did not go so far as to speak out against a coalition between Labour and the Liberal Democrats
- Brown is on his way back to London, after giving a morose speech in his Scottish constituency.
- Two results remain possible: A Conservative minority government, or a Labour – Liberal Democrat Coalition.
- Markets have remained positive about the polls, not cutting into the pound significantly and instead boosting UK bonds in overnight trading.
10:58 – According to Reuters Breaking News, the car bomb outside a polling station in Northern Ireland as been defused.
10:45 – Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling just spoke with the BBC about the Labour Party’s place in UK governance: They’re are still in charge, and when a coalition is formed, its not at all certain Brown will be out.
This is pretty much just spin from Darling. He knows the game is up for Brown. For him, well, that remains to be seen.
10:33 – The pound is down in trading since midnight in the UK:
10:31 – rumours on the BBC that Labour and the Liberal Democrats have already started talks on a coalition.
10:30 – And the Conservative surge has begun…
Labour, 103; Conservative, 110; Liberal Democrats, 14
10:18 – Labour Foreign Secretary David Miliband just made it abundantly clear he sees a hung parliament, and he wants his party to be a party of the solution.
This blogger’s opinion: Mr. Miliband will be the next UK Prime Minister if a Lib Dem – Labour coalition is formed. (Don’t bet on that.)
10:10 – Results are coming in quick…
Labour, 86; Conservative, 79; Liberal Democrats, 10
10:05 – Cameron has called Labour’s loss, emphasised that the country is seeking real change, and he feels it is the Conservatives who would provide it.
Cameron will, however, respect Labour’s right to form a government in a hung parliament scenario, according to The Guardian.
10:00 – And now Conservative leader David Cameron is set to speak after being reelected in his constituency…
9:55 – Just to give you a sense of how far we have to go yet, and how exciting the next couple of hours will be, take a look at this map of the UK and who has reported results yet, map from Politics Home.
9:47 – There is some confusion out there about why the pound is up and UK debt is performing well.
The reality is markets are confident now that this election has two potential outcomes, a Conservative win or a Lib Dem – Labour coalition. Each will supply a solid government, as it is becoming clear Labour is willing to accept sacrifices in coalition with the Lib Dems.
The major worry in a hung parliament is that a government won’t be formed quickly. It doesn’t look like that is going to be a problem, and traders are pleased.
9:45 – Here is the current score
Labour, 62; Conservative, 51; Liberal Democrats, 8
9:37 – According to the editor of the FT on the BBC, UK bond markets are reacting positively to the current poll results.
More details on that bond surge from The Guardian, with June gilts (UK government debt) up 1%.
Check on the Pound, down slightly from earlier highs, but is still up on the night.
9:20 – The big story thus far must be the Liberal Democrat under-performance. That could change, but the Clegg effect looks weak thus far.
If the Tories (Conservatives) look like they’re under-performing now, its important to note the next two hours will shape their night. Though right now, not as good as they should be considering the exit polls.
9:12 – Getting you up to speed:
- Right now, the future of the UK is split between a Liberal Democrat – Labour coalition and a Conservative majority. Neither looks more likely, as results are being updated every minutes
- Gordon Brown has pretty much given up his position as Prime Minister, in a conciliatory speech. It is now near certain he will not be Prime Minister again.
- Conservatives are getting some large swings in England, which may indicate big wins in key seats down the line tonight. That should become more clear in the next few hours.
- The pound is rising on hopes that either political outcome will produce a strong government.
9:00 – The Liberal Democrats have failed to gain a key seat from the Conservatives.
As FiveThirtyEight says, “exit poll may be more accurate than thought.”
8:55 – Nearing the 9 PM EST, and Labour is still in the lead in what still are limited results.
Lab, 31; Con, 14; LibDems, 4
8:36 – Brown clearly aiming for a coalition government, for electoral reform, and for a partnership with the Liberal Democrats in his remarks
He sounded like the evening’s loser, a disappointed Prime Minister who is soon to lose his role.
8:35 – The Guardian Now Seeing A Conservative Majority – Chief poll wiz eyes Con win.
8:20 – POUND UPDATE – Going into Friday morning GMT, all the signs are that markets are confident, and may perceive a positive result for the Conservatives. Or maybe worries over a hung parliament are all hogwash.
8:07 – BBC now speculating recent results and swings pointing towards a potential strong Conservative majority.
Clearly, no one has any idea yet what is going on.
8:05 – SO IT BEGINS – Gordon Brown about to make speech vaguely calling for a coalition government, according to The Guardian. This is a big first step towards the country moving towards a Lib Dem – Labour partnership.
8:00 PM – Government bonds are going to start trading right now. Poll results continue to say “hung parliament.” Expect some sort of mild bond sell off.
Right now, the score:
Lab: 5, Con: 1, LibDem: 1
That Conservative seat is the party’s first gain, and in a seat they were not focusing on.
7:58 – Two near 9% Conservative swings in Labour wins, according to BBC.
That’s solid work for the Conservatives there.
7:50 – Lib Dem pick up in Northern Ireland as allied Alliance party picks up shock seat in Belfast, according to BBC.
7:45 – Poll update – Two Ulster Conservative Unionists elected in Northern Ireland, they intend to work with the Conservatives.
7:30 – Here is some video of the chaos at UK polls brought on by high demand and closures before all voters were allowed to vote.
7:25 – Some poll leaks are pointing towards Conservative wins in key seats, specifically East Basildon and Thurrock, according to The Guardian.
7:11 – Bomb Alert in Northern Ireland – rumours have two polling stations closed by threat.
7:10 – Voters left out of the polls today are likely to feel somewhat better because the government now says it will investigate irregularities, according to the BBC.
This could lead to investigations deciding polls, which could matter if things get very close tonight.
6:56 – David Miliband was just live on the BBC, talking about government without a majority, as government of shared power. He’s quietly pro-coalition. Maybe because he knows that could make him Prime Minister?
6:52– Pound Update – Still not much radical movement, but its up on the night.
6:41 – Sunderland Central Result – Labour takes it
That’s 3-nil Labour
Conservatives gained here, with a 4.8% swing. Conservative swing average, over 8%, according to the BBC.
6:35 – First swing, now spin – The Conservatives are out ahead of the story in The Guardian pointing out that, if this exit poll is right, then Labour has lost the right to govern.
Labour will disagree, and has through Lord Mandelson all night on the BBC.
6:30 – Swing, what’s that mean? – Swing is when the share of the vote moves from one party to another, so votes swing in a particularly direction.
In order to win, the Conservatives need a massive swing. They are getting it in two constituencies (voting areas) where they wouldn’t expect it.
6:25 – Latest Result – Washington and Sunderland West for Labour
This is Labour’s 11th safest seat. Think somewhere in Massachusetts for the Democrats. Wait a minute.
But this is a 11.6% swing, according to poll numbers. That’s huge.
6:14 – POUND WATCH – GBP moving downward since exit poll revision, though up on the evening.
6:10 – The BBC is showing poll lines where individuals have been queuing, and have been unable to vote. Commentator calls it “third world.” The scandal of it all.
120 voters left without votes in my lovely old neighbourhood of Hackney, East London, according to The Guardian.
6:09 – Exit poll revision! Conservatives lose two votes in changes, according to the BBC. That takes them further from the 310 or higher they were seeking.
6:06 – Oxford prof on the BBC, if swing to the Conservatives in Sunderland South is repeated, there will not be a hung parliament and the UK will have a Conservative government.
6:03 – When I think of what hung parliament negotiations sound like, I think Benny Hill:
6:00 – Interesting – If David Cameron and the Conservatives are seeking Northern Ireland Unionist support, they will need to offer them financial support, according to BBC report.
Those seats are key for any sort of stable Conservative government to form. There are only four of them.
5:51 – FIRST RESULTS: Houghton-Sunderland South won by Labour. Ms. Phillipson is 26, went to Oxford and was chair of the Labour club there. Go figure.
Labour lost 12% of the area’s vote. This is considered a secure seat for Labour.
5:40 – Just a reminder, no polls have actually reported real results yet. The first of those will be coming shortly, possibly before the end of the hour.
5:35 – Bond markets are going to open in the UK at 8PM EST. This is special on election day. Keep your eye on the gilts as the sun goes down in New York.
5:33 – Unsurprisingly, the BBC is showing drunk celebrities talking about the election. Also, just moments ago, a mention of the mile high club. Slightly more cheeky than U.S. coverage of politics, no?
Wondering what Clegg, Cameron, and Brown are fighting for? Check out what could soon be their new digs >
5:28 – I’d have to agree with Piers Morgan, who is speaking on the BBC (on C-Span 3) right now. The Liberal Democrats are totally undervalued in these polls.
5:22 – Lord Mandelson, Labour strategist and business secretary, is on the BBC now, stirring the potential of a Liberal Democrat – Labour coalition. He is in a biting argument with the Conservative representative over who will have the legitimacy to govern.
If this is starting already, you can be sure this weekend’s negotiations are going to be rather chaotic.
5:18 – Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman Vince Cable has started the war of words already, calling a Conservative win by the current margins an illegitimate backing to form a government.
5:14 – You would imagine today’s high turnout numbers would benefit the upstart Liberal Democrats, with 70% of eligible voters voting, according to projections. But that doesn’t seem to be the case with the first exit poll.
It is unlikely these ‘new voters’ are showing up for Labour, considering their poor run down the stretch. So, if the exit poll is correct, the Conservatives seem to be the beneficiary.
5:05 – Further details of that poll are emerging. The Conservatives are on 307 seats, Labour 255, and the Liberal Democrats 59. With 29 others for other parties, it seems unlikely the Labour-Lib Dem coalition would not be very strong if at all viable, with many of the other seats being held by Northern Ireland Unionists, who ‘caucus’ with the Conservatives.
The Conservatives are just short of their clear majority, according to this poll.
5:00 PM EST – And the first exit polls are out with the BBC reporting a projected Conservative minority government in a hung parliament scenario, unless the Liberal Democrats and Labour were to form a coalition.
So it is very tight, with the first exit polls pointing towards disappointment for the Lib Dems, who hoped to gain from the election. This is still a hung parliament scenario, and the leadership of Britain is very much still up in the air.
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