UBS: The Australian Economy Has Stopped Weakening

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Scott Haslem is UBS’ top economist in Australia and he has joined the chorus of senior Australian economic figures who believe the economy is still doing okay.

Writing in his weekly Australian Economic Perspectives, Haslem, along with colleague George Tharenou, says that:

Following the sharp loss of consumer confidence around the May Budget and weaker May data flow, we continue to focus on our high frequency ‘super-leaders’ to assess whether the economy has continued to lose momentum into June, or shown signs of some stabilisation, as we’ve been anticipating.

Haslem and Tharenou say that consumer confidence has recovered somewhat, “weekly retail sales data also reveal a solid recovery in spending from mid-May, led by furniture & home wares (likely positive multipliers from higher housing activity), consistent with a solid rebound in the June retail data.”

They also add that weekly online job ads suggest ANZ job ads data today “will show a 2-3% rebound from May’s 5.5% fall” while the NAB business survey jobs component “will also provide a key signal to the 3-6mths outlook.”

Housing is mixed but on balance, the UBS economists say that:

our super-leaders suggest activity hasn’t continued to weaken post May, and that the domestic economy has recovered somewhat through the month of June.

It will be good news if they are right.

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