Britain is facing a hit to its economy whether or not the UK votes to stay in the European Union, according to UBS.
The investment bank’s wealth management division said in a note circulated on Friday that a vote to leave would spell economic doom in the short term (emphasis ours):
At a time when the pace of economic growth is already showing signs of easing, it is very possible that a loss of business and consumer confidence, lower investment and less hiring, resulting from a vote to leave the EU, could send the economy into recession.
But a vote to remain in the EU won’t solve the matter for good, possibly leading to more referendums on the nature of the UK’s relationship with the EU in the future.
Here’s UBS again (emphasis ours):
One’s of UBS Wealth Management’s key expectations is the inevitability of a ‘neverendum’:
Even if the UK chooses to remain in the EU, the implications of renegotiating our position will be extensive and uncertainty around our position could remain for a long time.
UBS believes that the tension of being outside the monetary union will magnify over time, and if the arrangement becomes untenable it could force the UK to reconsider again its EU membership or join the euro.
These tensions could lead to the UK public being asked yet again if the European vision is really the one they wish to share in.
So it’s possible the UK economy will suffer from uncertainty, whether or not the UK votes to leave.
At the moment, the outcome is too close to call. Friday marked the official start of political campaigning on the EU referendum, which is ten weeks away.
The polls show a slight lead for the Remain camp, but that the lead is narrowing: