UBS is out with a list of potential big surprises for 2010. (via FT Alphaville)
Truth be told, we’re not completely certain what the point of this exercise is. It’s easy to come up with surprises — oil below $10! — though perhaps these surprises in particular are ones that bear hedging against. That’s fair.
Of all these, we think benign Wall Street regulation is a pretty good bet. The Nikkei surge is also intriguing, merely because it seems so implausible at the moment.
Anyway, here’s their base case, which is kind of predictable given the lsit of surprises. The one interesting one in there is Fed tightening in Q2, which is earlier than many folks suspect.