In our pre-election prediction, we gave two simple reasons that Obama was going to win.
One was that the polling was on his side. The other was that the economy, far from being a big issue for Romney to run on, was a tailwind for Obama.
In UBS’ new ‘Macro Keys’ note, economist Maury N. Harris confirms that Obama was helped by the economy by pointing to the below chart.
What it shows is simple. Overwhelmingly, Presidents who saw a sharp drop in the unemployment rate the year of their election, won. Presidents who didn’t see a drop didn’t.
This isn’t to say that Obama did great on the economy, or that another President couldn’t have done better. But it is what it is. He had a historically insurmountable economic tailwind. The upshot is that there’s nothing special about this election. Forget demographics. Forget the youth vote. Forget Project Orca (Romney’s aweful Get-Out-The-Vote scheme). The economy had this one baked into the cake.
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