UBS Chief economist Scott Haslem is out with the latest update of his excellent “super leaders” of the Australian economy which he says is “still pointing to a better Q3”.
Haslem has some really good news for the economy in the Third quarter of 2014 after what looks like a period of reporting a weaker patch in Q2. He says:
Overall, our super-leaders have – over the past couple of weeks – continued to hold onto their post-Budget rebound, and continue to point to a recovery in the economy’s momentum into Q3, after a likely slower Q2 GDP print. Our high-frequency data suggest the jobs market should show improving jobs growth, while housing activity remains buoyant, notwithstanding there are early signs Melbourne is losing momentum. Consumer confidence and spending have lifted further into August. The jump in NAB business conditions in July (Figure 8), despite the AUD’s rise, points to 3%-plus GDP growth in 2H14, after what may be a softer print for Q2 next week.
Here are the key charts.
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