Photo: Bloomberg TV
Last December, UBS’s Jonathan Golub issued a 2012 year-end S&P 500 price target of 1,325, making him one of the more bearish strategists surveyed by Business Insider. At the time, the S&P was closer to 1,250.That call, however, has proven to be far too bearish.
In a recent note to clients, Golub boosted his target significantly:
The S&P 500 has rallied 24% since October 3, on dramatic improvement to the macro environment. We believe that conditions support further increases in both earnings and stock prices. As such, we are raising our year-end S&P 500 price target to 1,475 from 1,325. and our 2012 & 2013 EPS estimates to $103 and $112 respectively (from $99 and $111).
Golub listed four reasons for boosting his EPS estimates:
Our previous $99 EPS estimate represented roughly flat earnings growth over 2011 levels (approx. $97.95) with virtually all upside coming from buybacks. Our increase to $103 reflects more supportive conditions including (1) better U.S. economic data; (2) less severe results in Europe; (3) higher oil prices (a positive at current levels); and (4) reduced financial sector stress.
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