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First Goldman announced last week that it saw the top in oil.Now UBS:
Robust performance but diminished risk/reward The energy and materials sectors have led gains in global equity markets in the last year, boosted by strong demand, surging commodity prices and rising risk appetite. Oil prices are up 50% since last September and the UBS Bloomberg CMCI is at new highs. While the fundamental story remains intact for resources, we see limited near-term upside given current price levels and recent performance. We also note that our Basic Materials, Oil and Gas, and Asset Allocation teams have voiced similar concerns. In addition, we are increasingly concerned about rising tactical risks to global equity markets, which we explore in more detail below.