UBS: Sometimes ADP Is Off And Sometimes They're Waaay Off

Maury Harris UBSMaury Harris

The most notable of today’s trio of bullish jobs reports came from ADP, who said private payrolls jumped 201k in August.  On average, economists were looking for about 140k.Some economists will be revising up their projections for tomorrow BLS jobs report based on the new data.

However, UBS’s economics team led by Maury Harris won’t be among these folks.

From their new note to clients:

ADP estimates that private payrolls rose 201k in August—stronger than the 139k consensus estimate for private payrolls in Friday’s employment report and further from our 125k estimate. However, we do not put much weight on the ADP data. In July, the initial ADP figure missed the BLS estimate by only 9k; but in June it missed by 92k in the opposite direction; and we see no signals of when errors reverse course.

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