Tuesday Market Expectations 3/15/11 – Cover All Your Shorts And Get Long

HedgeFundLIVE — I have been bearish for weeks, but I never factored in a nuclear meltdown in a major city as a possible risk I needed to consider. Now I know I am going to sound crazy, but it is time to buy. Yes, you heard me right. It is time to start buying stocks! I would also take huge advantage of the dip in oil.

The Middle East crisis is not going away. Up until yesterday, there were bulls all over evening business programming proclaiming how cheap stocks were, and bears like myself were criticised for not understanding how strong the fundamentals in the U.S. were. Then an Earthquake hits and we are reminded that we are but tiny and perhaps insignificant beings on this planet, pushing around paper in a giant confidence game that has been going on for a thousand years.

Trading is no longer about fundamentals or perhaps even technicals. It is a game of confidence. Who will blink first. It is a game of emotions driven by exogenous events for at least the last three years. The S&P is now unchanged on the year and I believe we have corrected appropriately. Obviously, all bets are off if Tokyo is significantly exposed to radiation. But barring that extreme, we are in the midst of real panic selling.

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