The hedge fund Tudor Investment’s weather analyst sent around a report Friday that said the chances of a hurricane of disastrous proportions were 35%.
Chances that it will be less serious, costing the city a few billion dollars in damage, he said were 75%.
Today he updated his prediction to say it looks like slightly less than what we expected. But “stay on guard.”
The worst case scenario the analyst predicted, according to a report seen by Business Insider, is a hurricane that costs the area it hits, which includes New York, $40 billion+ in damage. The power could be out for up to a week.
He compared it to the hurricane that hit New York in 1821, when, according to NYMag, “in less than an hour a thirteen-foot storm surge deluged the city, swallowing everything below Canal Street. The Battery was particularly devastated, docks were destroyed, and ships were swept onto streets. Further uptown, a bridge that connected Harlem to Ward’s Island was washed away and somewhere in Chinatown, the East River likely met the Hudson.”
Cary Mock, an associate geography professor at the University of South Carolina, told Reuters the hurricane was “probably a strong category 4.
Reuters says historical records show it caused a 10-foot storm surge at low tide, Mock said. “At that time, not that many people were living in New York, so people didn’t pay a lot of attention to it.”