In a July global markets research report, Nomura analysts described the potential impacts on Asia’s economy and security under a Trump presidency.
Nomura’s “what if” exercise uses Donald Trump’s main campaign pledges to assess risks from protectionism, regional security, and US macro policy.
“A Trump presidency would no doubt hurt Asia’s GDP growth and could ultimately drive cost-push inflation, impart smaller trade surpluses, and looser macroeconomic policies,” Nomura analysts wrote.
Because Trump has said conflicting things during his path to securing the Republican presidential nomination, it’s hard to actually predict what will happen. But it’s interesting to consider some possibilities.