Republicans' biggest argument to sell Americans on their new tax law isn't working

Pablo Martinez Monsivais/Getty ImagesHouse Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell

  • Republicans have argued that American workers will get bigger paychecks from the new tax law.
  • Americans aren’t seeing that so far.
  • According to a new Morning Consult/Politico poll, only 22% of people said their take-home pay is up, while 55% said there was no boost.
  • The overall favorability of the tax law also declined in the poll, but remains positive.

Most American households still aren’t feeling the benefits from the GOP tax law, according to a new poll, undermining one of Republicans’ key arguments for the legislation.

Amid changes to the Internal Revenue Service’s withholding tables and pronouncements from Republicans that Americans would get bigger paychecks, most Americans reported no recent change in their take-home pay.

The Morning Consult/Politico poll found that 55% of the people surveyed said they did not notice a boost in their paychecks over the last few weeks because of the tax bill, 22% said they did see an increase. 23% of those asked said they were not sure.

Fewer workers reported a bump in take-home pay in the new poll than a previous Morning Consult/Politico poll released last month. In that poll, 27% reported a pay increase and 50% reported no increase.

The survey also follows a CNBC poll in late March that found only 32% of people reporting an increase in their paychecks.

In pushing the tax law, Republicans have repeatedly argued that average Americans would see increased paychecks stemming from the law’s tweaks to the federal tax code.. According to the Internal Revenue Service, new withholding rules should have bumped the take-home pay of roughly 90% of American workers by the start of March.

But, based on the polling, few people are taking notice.

The Morning Consult/Politico poll still found that Americans held an overall favourable view of the law – 44% approved and 39% disapproved – but this number is cause for concern for the GOP. According to Morning Consult, the percentage of people who disapprove of the law has increased every month since the bill was passed – from 34% in January to the current 39%.

Two other polls released in April – one from Gallup and another from NBC News/The Wall Street Journal – found that most Americans held a negative overall view of the law. The Morning Consult/Politico poll has typically shown more favourable views of the law.

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