Each month we bring you the Case-Shiller data, and just about each month we continue to be disappointed that the market hasn’t turned yet.
One well-known problem with Case-Shiller data is that it lags very badly. Normally that’s not a huge deal, except when you’re looking for turns int he market, then numbers from last autumn aren’t very exciting.
This won’t be totally satisfying to people, because it’s based on asking prices, and asking prices aren’t the same as closing prices, but theoretically the trend in the ask should have something to do with the trend in the close. And if you can adjust the ask for seasonality and the mix of houses sold, then it might tell you something.
And based on this measure, the housing picture looks a lot better.
Again, it’s not perfect, but housing measure is anywhere close to perfect. But as an attempt to gather more real time trends, this is intriguing.